20 games that will impact the College Football Playoff

What a massive game to open the season. One advantage of having a 12-team playoff is that we can get great games like this, where the loser has plenty of time to find a way back into the playoff. Rewind to three years ago when these two met in Charlotte and the Bulldogs eeked out a 10-3 win and the two programs have gone their separate ways. Georgia has won two national championships and Clemson has fallen back a bit. This time, Clemson is trying to attempt to show they matter. Will they be able to show they are back? If Cade Klubnik can take that next leap up then the Tigers could win the ACC. As for Georgia, well, they are a machine right now. They were a poor SEC title game showing from possibly winning a third straight national championship. This is what they do. 

Michigan’s winning streak could be in jeopardy as two of last year’s College Football Playoff teams meet in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have had a lot of changes since then, most notably Jim Harbaugh and J.J. McCarthy (among others) heading to the NFL. Quinn Ewers is back for the Longhorns and Steve Sarkisian is the lone Playoff head coach back with the same program. The winner of this game has a huge card to play when playoff selections come around while the loser gives up their wiggle room of earning an at-large berth. 

If Boise State can go into Oregon and pop the Ducks, that will give them a major card to play at the end of the season. The Broncos’ schedule isn’t daunting, which gives them a shot at becoming Mountain West champions. A win over Oregon would likely be the biggest win any Group of 5 champion could have on their resume come December. Could it happen? Eh. But it could be a trap game of sorts as the revamped rivalry game at Oregon State comes the following week. 

These two have pretty much owned the SEC over the last two decades (yes, I see you LSU, Auburn and Florida). The two have combined for 11 SEC championships over the last 15 years, meeting four times in the SEC title game and once for the national championship. National championships? These two have won 7 of the last 15 of them and at least one of them have made the College Football Playoff in 9 of its 10 seasons (both made it in the same year twice). For the first time in this era, Georgia strolls into this match-up with the top head coach. Kirby Smart is now the highest-paid championship coach while Alabama is breaking in ex-Washington coach Kalen DeBoer as Nick Saban’s replacement. Of course Smart and Georgia are smarting from Alabama’s win in last year’s SEC title game that kept the Bulldogs out of the playoff. 

The new look Big 12 is wide open this year. Both Arizona and Utah (along with Oklahoma State and Kansas State) feel they are the best in this league — their new league — which makes this rather early season tilt really important. The winner of this game should be the front-runner to nab one of the Big 12 title spots, as neither Arizona nor Utah really have a daunting road after this. If QB Cameron Rising can stay healthy, this league may be the Utes to lose. Arizona will need their defense to gel early on or they could be playing catch-up.  

One of the neat things about the new 12-team playoff is that it guarantees one of the Group of 5 champions a spot in the playoff. Only once in ten seasons has a G5 team reached the playoff (AAC’s Cincinnati in 2021), and they had to be undefeated, beat Power 5 schools, and hope for some Power 5 slippage. No more. You know longer have to be perfect to get a playoff spot — you just have to be a conference champion and the best of the five. Liberty enters the year as the favorite to nab one of those spots, but Appalachian State could make that difficult. Liberty, who would’ve been in the playoff last year if the current system was in place, travels to Boone in a big CUSA vs Sun Belt showdown. While the loser can still go on to win their league’s title, this game could tip the scales when the rankings come out — even if neither of these teams win their conference crown.  

This game will go a long way to determining the ACC champion. Sure, with divisions gone in the ACC we could see these two have a rematch in Charlotte, but the loser of this game doesn’t want to take any chances. Ironically, these are the two programs who are most vocal about trying to leave the conference they are trying to win. The Seminoles ended a 7-game losing streak to the Tigers last year. 

It still seems so weird that the Buckeyes and Ducks will meet in Oregon for a Big Ten conference game. These two schools met three years ago in Columbus and the Ducks shocked the Buckeyes, 35-28 … a loss that likely kept them out of the College Football Playoff. This time around, the game is in Eugene and in the thick of the regular season. Both teams could be undefeated heading into this meeting and ready to let the ball fly. Dillon Gabriel takes over the QB spot for Oregon to replace Bo Nix while Ohio State is absolutely loaded. 

With all the chaos among the SEC powers, Ole Miss is kind of hiding in the weeds. Sure, they will be ranked high heading into this showdown in Baton Rouge, but they also could be undefeated heading into this week, which will begin a brutal second-half schedule. By the time we get here, Rebels’ quarterback Jaxson Dart could be firing on all cylinders, and LSU has its work cut out for it. 

The Rivalry moves to the SEC. Texas walks into this meeting with momentum — they were in the College Football Playoff last year and are the only school among those four returning their head coach. However, Oklahoma did won last year’s meeting in Dallas, 34-30, and has won five of the last six meetings and seven of nine. The game was always important due to the nature of the rivalry and typically was a big card to play when deciding the Big 12 championship, but with both in the SEC and the competitive nature of that conference neither team wants to lose this game and have to fight back up the standings. 

Another statement I though I’d never make: Georgia heads to Austin to face Texas in a pivotal SEC showdown. Texas won the Big 12 last season and reached the College Football Playoffs while Georgia missed out on a chance to three-peat. With the division format gone in the SEC, this is a massive game with all kinds of playoff implications. The loser will have to find a way to climb back into the race for the conference crown if they want to win one of those coveted byes.

Missouri is the trendy outside-the-box team this year, and for good reason. The Brady Cook-to-Luther Burden III tandem should fill highlight shows as the Tigers look to build on their 11-2 season. The Tigers also have a relatively calm schedule for an SEC team — they do head to Texas A&M in October and host Oklahoma in November — but this game in Tuscaloosa is absolutely huge for Mizzou. This game is kind of snuck in there for Bama (between trips to Tennessee and LSU) so if there is ever a time for the Tigers to surprise the Tide, this would be the year. If they can pull this off and take care of business elsewhere, Missouri has a real good look at playing for an SEC title and getting a playoff berth. Alabama needs this win because there are too many other landmines out there on their schedule that they can’t afford to not record a W here. 

No school benefits more from the playoff expansion than Penn State. The Nittany Lions could go 10-2 and have no shot at a playoff berth because those losses would be to division rivals Ohio State and Michigan. The Big Ten has ditched divisions, so Penn State isn’t held down by being the third-best program in the East division (heck, they won’t even play Michigan this season). Quarterback Drew Allar has star potential, but he played really poorly in the Nittany Lions’ biggest games last year. This qualifies as a huge game. 

Welcome to the Big Ten, Oregon! Not only do they host Ohio State in September, but they aslo get to travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in their first season in their new conference. This league sure like to load up the back half of the schedule with big games and, boy, is this a huge one. Dan Lanning’s defense will be Big Ten ready and by the time we get to November, Dillon Gabriel and that offense should be rolling along. Sherrone Moore hopes that his Wolverines offense can say the same thing. This could set up as an elimination-type game in the league. 

Even though the SEC’s division format is gone, we still get to see the good ol’ Bama-LSU fight that could determine who gets to the conference championship in Atlanta. As I mentioned earlier, Alabama doesn’t head into this game with the trump card of Nick Saban anymore. Brian Kelly‘s bunch will be hungry to knock off the Tide and take a leap towards a playoff berth. Both teams will have a bye before this game (they’ll need it, as the Tide face Tennessee and Missouri heading into it, while the Tigers travel to Arkansas and Texas A&M). The winner of this game has made it to the SEC title game in each of the last six seasons. 

November 9th will be a banner day in the SEC. Georgia-Ole Miss. Alabama-LSU and Oklahoma-Missouri. In Oxford, this could be an elimination game of sorts, depending on what has happened leading up. These two met last year between the hedges and the Dawgs absolutely demolished the Rebels, 52-17. How much has Ole Miss improved since then? This is also the final road game for Georgia and a great opportunity to punch their ticket to the SEC title tilt. 

Florida State’s season will be about revenge and trying to repeat itself as an ACC champion and take its rightful place in the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame believes they are now in a position to get back to being a player on the national stage, and popping the Seminoles in South Bend would be a huge feather in their hat. The Irish don’t have the luxury of winning a conference title, so they must find a way to nab one of the seven at-large bids. If Duke transfer Riley Leonard can click with the offense, the Irish could make that run. 

One of the good things that has come with the current conference realignment is the return of Texas-Texas A&M. When A&M left the Big 12 in 2012, the rivalry that was played at least once a year since 1898 was now over. With Texas’ move to the SEC to join the Aggies, we get the rivalry back and it will be important. The Longhorns got a big taste of the College Football Playoff and want to get back. Not just get back, but they feel as if they could win the SEC in their first season and play for a national championship. Texas A&M is no slouch, and would love nothing to ruin the Horns’ plans in Mike Elko‘s first season. 

This game has been so meaningful the last few years and it could get even bigger. For starters, the heat is on for Ohio State’s head coach Ryan Day to just beat Michigan for the first time since 2019. Jim Harbaugh left the defending champions for the NFL, but his replacement (Sherrone Moore) was the interim head coach last season when the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes for the third straight time. This game also changes with the backdrop of the new playoff and Big Ten formats. For one, the loser still could have a good chance to nab one of the 12 playoff spots, but likely wouldn’t be able to get a bye. Also, with the Big Ten getting rid of divisions, we could see these two strap back up for a rematch a week later in Indianapolis for the conference championship. Imagine seeing this rivalry on a neutral field with both fans in attendance! 

While the conference championship games have always mattered, they are of even greater importance and relevance now. As you know, the top five ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff (good news, ACC!), so a win … even an upset … means you got one of those 12 seats. Not only that but the top four ranked conference champs will get a first-round bye. That is absolutely a critical advantage to have. You have one less game to play and it gives you that normal bowl rest time programs have been accustomed to.

There’s also the part about the game itself being a better product. With everyone dumping divisions, we will get the two best teams facing off in these games. No more Michigan-Ohio State in the regular season finale with the winner pounding the Big Ten West champ the following week. For the most part, both teams playing in these title games will be legitimate playoff caliber squads, and when you figure that an actual playoff berth goes to the winner, you see that we will have a lot on the line. Even those Group of 5 conferences will be games to keep an eye on since one of those champs will end up in the playoff. So, not only is winning the game paramount, but style points could help lift your ranking above the other winners. I am so looking forward to how this shakes out.